Development and validation of risk prediction model for sarcopenia in patients with colorectal cancer

Sarcopenia is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer. However, the clinical factors that lead to colorectal cancer patients with sarcopenia are still unclear. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of sarcopenia and to provide healthcare professionals with a reliable tool for early identification of high-risk patients with colorectal cancer associated sarcopenia.

A total of 359 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer from July 2021 to May 2022 were included. All patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 287) cohort and a validation cohort (n = 72) at the ratio of 80/20. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were performed to evaluate the factors associated with sarcopenia. The diagnostic nomogram of sarcopenia in patients with colorectal cancer was constructed in the training cohort and validated in the validation cohort. Various evaluation metrics were employed to assess the performance of the developed nomogram, including the ROC curve, calibration curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Smoking history, drinking history, diabetes, TNM stage, nutritional status, and physical activity were included in the nomogram for the prediction of sarcopenia. The diagnostic nomograms demonstrated excellent discrimination, with AUC values of 0.971 and 0.922 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Moreover, the calibration performance of the nomogram is also excellent, as evidenced by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test result of 0.886.

The nomogram consisting of preoperative factors was able to successfully predict the occurrence of sarcopenia in colorectal cancer patients, aiding in the early identification of high-risk patients and facilitating timely implementation of appropriate intervention measures.