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How to understand high global food price? Using SHAP to interpret machine learning algorithm.

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Global food prices surged due to increased US dollar supply and oil prices. Quantitative easing and the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly impact food security and agricultural supply chains.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Agricultural Economics
  • International Finance

Background:

  • Global food prices have reached unprecedented highs, with ongoing debate regarding the contributing factors.
  • The study addresses the lack of academic consensus on the drivers of recent global food price inflation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify the root causes of the global food price surge between January 2000 and May 2022.
  • To analyze the implications for global food security.
  • To investigate the influence of monetary policy and geopolitical events on food prices.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized theoretical analysis and machine learning models.
  • Employed monthly data spanning from January 2000 to May 2022.
  • Examined key variables including US dollar supply, oil prices, and geopolitical factors.

Main Results:

  • Increased US dollar supply and rising oil prices, particularly during the pandemic, were identified as the most significant drivers of food price increases.
  • US dollar quantitative easing emerged as the primary factor, with alternating impacts from oil prices and dollar liquidity.
  • Food production reductions and demand growth expectations exacerbate price increases amidst global food shortages.
  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted agricultural supply chains, with crude oil and fertilizers becoming major price drivers.

Conclusions:

  • US dollar liquidity and oil price shocks are critical determinants of global food prices.
  • Geopolitical instability, exemplified by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, poses substantial risks to agricultural supply chains and food security.
  • Future food price trends will be influenced by supply chain vulnerabilities and demand dynamics.