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Relationship Between Extreme Rainfall Occurrences and Galactic Cosmic Rays over Natal/RN, Brazil: A Case Study
Ronabson C Fernandes1, Henderson S Wanderley2, André Luiz DE Carvalho3
1UNINTER, Av. Pres. Castelo Branco, 806, Centro, 57480-000 Delmiro Gouveia, AL, Brazil.
Anais Da Academia Brasileira De Ciencias
|August 16, 2023
Summary
Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) flux significantly intensifies extreme rainfall events by increasing condensation nuclei. GCR flux showed a greater contribution to heavy rainfall in Natal/RN, Brazil.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climatology
- Astrophysics
Background:
- Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) flux intensity influences Condensation Nuclei (CN) production, leading to intensified rainfall.
- Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, are a growing concern in climate studies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze rainfall distribution in the Northeast Brazil (NEB) region.
- To investigate the impact of GCR flux on extreme rainfall events in Natal/RN, Brazil, during July 1998.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical rainfall, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and GCR flux data for Natal/RN.
- Employed R software for comprehensive statistical analysis.
- Performed Pearson correlation analysis and regression modeling.
Main Results:
- A strong positive correlation (r=0.94, p<0.001) was found between rainfall and GCR flux for events >10 mm.
- A significant negative correlation (r=-0.76, p<0.05) was observed between rainfall and SST.
- GCR flux explained 62.0% of the variance in extreme rainfall, while SST explained 32.4%.
Conclusions:
- GCR flux plays a crucial role in intensifying extreme rainfall occurrences in Natal/RN.
- GCR flux demonstrated a greater contribution to extreme rainfall compared to SST.
- Findings highlight the importance of GCR flux in climatological studies of extreme weather events.
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