Exploring causality from observational data: An example assessing whether religiosity promotes cooperation.

Area of Science:

• Social Sciences
• Epidemiology
• Statistics

Background:

• Causal inference from observational data is challenging due to potential confounding and selection bias.
• Unverifiable assumptions often underpin causal interpretations from non-experimental studies.
• Sensitivity analyses are crucial for assessing the robustness of causal claims.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate the application of sensitivity analyses for causal inference from observational data.
• To investigate the causal relationship between religiosity and cooperative behavior, using blood donation as a proxy.
• To assess the potential impact of unmeasured confounding and selection bias on observed associations.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a large-scale prospective UK birth cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, n ≈ 14,000).
• Applied a range of sensitivity analyses, including testing different confounding structures and assessing selection bias.
• Examined associations between religiosity (belief, affiliation, attendance) and self-reported blood donation.

Main Results:

• No significant association was found between religious belief/affiliation and blood donation.
• Religious attendance showed a positive association with blood donation, but this could be explained by unmeasured confounding.
• The evidence suggesting religiosity causally promotes blood donation in this population was weak.

Conclusions:

• Sensitivity analyses are valuable tools for evaluating the plausibility of causal interpretations from observational studies.
• The observed association between religious attendance and blood donation is not definitively causal.
• Further research with robust methods is needed to clarify the relationship between religiosity and prosocial behaviors.