Algorithm for Forecasting the Number of Hospital Beds by Specialty Using Regression Equations

Introduction:Planning the hospital beds according to population needs is still in focus. Objective: To develop an algorithm for designing the number of beds Per hospital and specialty wards according to local needs. Materials and methods: The present study was designed as a retrospective analysis based on hospital utilisation data, demographic data and morbidity recorded by GPs in J2 county, testing the variation in dependent variable (number of beds) due to independent variables, using linear regression analysis. Results:Three models were tested, of which model 3 version 2 was considered the most relevant one, providing a general regression equation for type I hospitals, but also for different hospital wards, taking into account local data regarding morbidity on specialty wards and local demographic data; when uploaded with own data of type I and IV hospitals, the number of beds forecasted by regression equations provided differences in specialty ward bed numbers, comparing with the approved structure. Conclusions:The algorithm for planning the hospital beds on specialty wards provided by the present study can be used to either forecast the structure of hospital beds for new hospitals or redesign the current ones according to the population needs.