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Updating, evidence evaluation, and operator availability: A theoretical framework for understanding belief.

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  • 1Department of Psychology, Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey.

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Human belief updating can be rational and evidence-based, unlike evidence evaluation which is prone to motivated reasoning and cognitive biases. This two-level framework clarifies belief formation processes.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Human belief is often considered irrational, influenced by heuristics and motivated reasoning.
  • Existing research presents conflicting views on the rationality of belief formation.

Approach:

  • Distinguishing between belief updating and evidence evaluation processes.
  • Proposing a two-level theoretical framework for belief formation.
  • Analyzing the computational difficulties and heuristic nature of evidence processing.

Key Points:

  • Belief updating (Level 1) is proposed as a rational, Bayesian-like process, impenetrable to desires.
  • Evidence search and evaluation (Level 2) are heuristic, fallible, and penetrable to motivation.
  • Level 2 processes exhibit bounded rationality due to computational complexity.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed framework offers a nuanced understanding of belief, localizing irrationality.
  • It helps reconcile debates by differentiating between rational updating and biased evidence evaluation.
  • This model provides a granular view of cognitive processes in belief formation.