Predicting transcriptional outcomes of novel multigene perturbations with GEARS

Understanding cellular responses to genetic perturbation is central to numerous biomedical applications, from identifying genetic interactions involved in cancer to developing methods for regenerative medicine. However, the combinatorial explosion in the number of possible multigene perturbations severely limits experimental interrogation. Here, we present graph-enhanced gene activation and repression simulator (GEARS), a method that integrates deep learning with a knowledge graph of gene-gene relationships to predict transcriptional responses to both single and multigene perturbations using single-cell RNA-sequencing data from perturbational screens. GEARS is able to predict outcomes of perturbing combinations consisting of genes that were never experimentally perturbed. GEARS exhibited 40% higher precision than existing approaches in predicting four distinct genetic interaction subtypes in a combinatorial perturbation screen and identified the strongest interactions twice as well as prior approaches. Overall, GEARS can predict phenotypically distinct effects of multigene perturbations and thus guide the design of perturbational experiments.