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Published on: February 16, 2016
Predicted Heart Mass: A Tale of 2 Ventricles
Eduard Ródenas-Alesina1, Farid Foroutan2, Chun-Po Fan2
1Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research (E.R.-A., I.B., N.A., H.J.R., Y.M.), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Insights
Assessing donor and recipient predicted heart mass (PHM) separately for the left and right ventricles improves 1-year graft failure risk prediction after heart transplantation. This refined matching strategy enhances donor-recipient compatibility and donor organ utilization.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Transplantation Medicine
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Total predicted heart mass (PHM) is standard for donor-recipient size matching in heart transplantation.
- Separate measurement of right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular (LV) PHM may enhance risk prediction for 1-year graft failure.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate if separate LV and RV PHM assessment improves risk prediction of 1-year graft failure compared to total PHM.
- To assess the reclassification of risk using combined LV and RV PHM versus total PHM.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of adult heart transplant recipients from the UNOS database (2000-2018).
- Modeling of LV and RV PHM using restricted cubic splines.
- Adjusted Cox regression to determine association with 1-year graft failure.
- Net reclassification index (NRI) to assess risk reclassification.
Main Results:
- A U-shaped association was observed between total PHM and 1-year graft failure risk.
- Increased graft failure risk was noted for LV undersizing (>5%) and RV oversizing (>20%).
- Separate LV/RV PHM assessment yielded an NRI of 8.5% for improved risk reclassification.
Conclusions:
- Donor-recipient PHM matching risk is influenced by LV undersizing and RV oversizing.
- Separate assessment of LV and RV PHM refines donor-recipient matching for heart transplantation.
- This approach may minimize 1-year graft failure and increase donor organ utilization.
Background:
Total predicted heart mass (PHM) is the recommended metric to assess donor-recipient size matching in patients undergoing heart transplantation. Separately measuring right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular (LV) PHM may improve risk prediction of 1-year graft failure.
Methods:
Adult heart transplant recipients from the UNOS database from 2000 to 2018 were included in the study. LV and RV PHM were modeled as restricted cubic splines. The association with 1-year graft failure was determined using adjusted Cox regression. The risk reclassification of using both LV and RV PHM versus total PHM was assessed using the net reclassification index.
Results:
A total of 34 976 recipients were included. We observed a U-shaped association between total PHM and 1-year graft failure, such that risk increased for hearts undersized by >15% and those oversized by more than 27%. Graft failure incrementally increased when LV PHM was undersized by more than 5% and when RV was oversized by >20%. There was 1.5-fold greater risk of graft failure for an LV undersized by >26% or an RV oversized by more than 40%. Using LV and RV PHM risk-assessment separately led to a net reclassification index=8.5% ([95% CI, 5.3%-11.7%], nonevent net reclassification index=9.1%, event net reclassification index=-0.6%).
Conclusions:
The association between donor-recipient PHM match and the risk of graft failure after heart transplantation can be further understood as risk attributable to LV undersizing and RV oversizing. Assessing LV and RV PHM separately instead of total PHM could further refine the methods used to match donors and recipients for heart transplantation, minimize the risk of 1-year graft failure, and increase the use of donor organs.
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