A prospective ecological risk assessment method based on exposure and ecological scenarios (ERA-EES) to determine...

Soil heavy metal (HM) contamination around metal mining areas (MMAs) is a global concern that requires a cost-effective ecological risk assessment (ERA) method for preventive management. Traditional ERAs, comparing environmental HM concentrations with benchmarks, are labor- and cost-intensive in field investigations and chemical analyses, which challenge the management demands of numerous MMAs. In this study, a prospective ecological risk assessment method based on exposure and ecological scenario (ERA-EES) was developed to predict the eco-risk levels (low/medium/high) around MMAs prior to field sampling. Five exposure scenario indicators related to soil HM exposure and three ecological scenario indicators reflecting the soil bioreceptor response were selected and combined with the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods for ERA-EES development. Case application and performance evaluation with 67 MMAs in China demonstrated that the ERA-EES method had an overall effective and conservative performance when referring to potential ecological risk index (PERI) levels, with an accuracy of 0.87, kappa coefficient of 0.7, and low or medium eco-risk levels in PERI classified to high levels in ERA-EES. Overall, the selected scenario indicators could efficiently reflect the risk levels of soil HM pollution from mining activities. Besides, more regulatory efforts should be paid to the MMAs of nonferrous metals, underground and long-term mining and those located in southern China. This work provided a convenient and cost-effective prospective ERA method under the trend of ERA being tiered and refined, facilitating the risk management of various MMAs.