Predictors of immune persistence induced by two-dose BBIBP-CorV vaccine in high-risk occupational population

The immune protection from infection may wane over time as neutralizing antibody levels decline. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict long-term immune persistence induced by two-dose BBIBP-CorV vaccine and calculate the neutralizing antibody decline probability of individuals.

In the initial study, a total of 809 participants were recruited and randomly allocated (1:1:1) to vaccination group with three two-dose schedules on days 0 and 14, 0 and 21, or 0 and 28. The participants with neutralizing antibody titers of 16 or above on day 28 after the second dose were followed up at month 3, 6 and 10. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model and nomogram model were used to identify predictors associated with maintaining of neutralizing antibody levels during 10 months after the second dose.

A total of 744 participants followed up at day 28 after the second dose. The participants with age ≥ 50 (aHR = 3.556, 95 %CI: 1.141-4.884, P = 0.028) were associated with a high risk of response loss (titers < 16). The participants who were in 0-28 d group (aHR = 0.403, 95 %CI: 0.177-0.919, P = 0.031), had an influenza vaccination history (aHR = 0.468, 95 %CI: 0.267-0.921, P = 0.033) or were female (aHR = 0.542, 95 %CI: 0.269-0.935, P = 0.035) tended to maintain immune persistence during 10 months after the second dose. The nomogram was constructed and showed moderate discrimination[C-index:0.711 (95 %CI: 0.652-0.770); AUC: 0.731 (95 %CI: 0.663-0.792)] and good calibration.

From 28 days to 10 months after receipt of the second dose of the BBIBP-CorV vaccine, neutralizing antibody levels were substantially decreased, especially among men, among persons 50 years of age or older, among persons with the 0-14 d group, and among persons without history of influenza vaccination.

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2100041705, ChiCTR2100041706.