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Updated: Jul 18, 2025

Measuring Statistical Learning Across Modalities and Domains in School-Aged Children Via an Online Platform and Neuroimaging Techniques
Published on: June 30, 2020
When and how do children solve the Weather Prediction Task?
Emilie Bochud-Fragnière1, Pierre Lavenex1, Pamela Banta Lavenex1,2
1Laboratory of Brain and Cognitive Development, Institute of Psychology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Children develop Weather Prediction Task (WPT) solving strategies from middle to late childhood. Older children and adults utilize a sophisticated conditional strategy, unlike younger children who rely on simpler methods.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Development
- Neuroscience
- Developmental Psychology
Background:
- Adults solve the Weather Prediction Task (WPT) using memory-dependent strategies.
- Previous research on children's WPT performance lacked detailed cognitive process analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- Determine the minimum age children can solve the WPT.
- Identify age-related changes in WPT solving strategies.
Main Methods:
- Tested 3-12-year-old children and adults on a modified WPT.
- Analyzed performance based on cue-outcome associations to infer strategies.
Main Results:
- 3-5.5-year-olds did not solve the task.
- 5.5-7.5-year-olds used simple strategies focusing on the most predictive cues.
- 7.5-12-year-olds and adults employed a conditional hierarchical strategy, prioritizing highly predictive cues.
Conclusions:
- WPT solving strategies mature through childhood.
- Developing conditional strategies correlates with hippocampus-dependent memory system maturation.
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