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Predictors of mortality in Ugandan children with TB, 2016-2021
G L Becker1, P Amuge2, R Ssebunya2
1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA, USA.
Insights
Pediatric tuberculosis (TB) treatment in Uganda has a high mortality rate. Malnutrition and HIV infection significantly increase the risk of death in children undergoing TB treatment.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Infectious Diseases
- Pediatrics
Background:
- High burden of pediatric tuberculosis (TB) in Uganda.
- Need to identify factors influencing mortality in children undergoing TB treatment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate predictors of mortality during TB treatment among children in Uganda.
- To analyze TB treatment outcomes in pediatric patients at urban and rural referral hospitals.
Main Methods:
- Historical cohort study design.
- Inclusion of pediatric TB cases (<15 years) from 2016-2021.
- Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression models.
Main Results:
- 1,658 pediatric TB cases identified; 7.8% mortality during treatment.
- Median time to death was 27 days post-treatment initiation.
- HIV, moderate, and severe malnutrition were significant predictors of mortality.
Conclusions:
- High mortality observed in pediatric TB patients in Uganda.
- Malnutrition and HIV are critical risk factors for death during TB treatment.
- Deaths predominantly occurred during the intensive phase of TB treatment.
Abstract:
BACKGROUND: The burden of pediatric TB is high in Uganda. Our objective was to evaluate predictors of mortality during TB treatment among children at an urban and a rural referral hospital.METHODS: We designed a historical cohort study of TB cases at Mulago National Referral Hospital, Kampala; and Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital, Fort Portal, Uganda, in children aged <15 years from 2016 to 2021. We used Kaplan-Meier models to estimate survival and fit multivariable Cox regression models to determine mortality hazards during TB treatment.RESULTS: We identified 1,658 children diagnosed with TB from 2016 to 2021. Of 1,623 children with known treatment outcomes, 127/1,623 (7.8%) died during TB treatment, 1,298/1,623 (78.3%) completed treatment, 150/1,623 (9.2%) were lost to follow-up, and two children failed treatment. Using Kaplan-Meier functions, the median time to death was 27 days following treatment initiation. In adjusted Cox models, predictors of mortality included HIV (aHR 1.68, 95% CI 1.01-2.81), moderate malnutrition (aHR 2.22, 95% CI 1.18-4.16), and severe malnutrition (aHR 2.92, 95% CI 1.75-4.87).CONCLUSION: Mortality was high at an urban and a rural referral hospital among children who initiated TB treatment from 2016 to 2021, with the majority of deaths occurring during the intensive phase of TB treatment. Malnutrition and HIV were significant predictors of death during treatment.
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