Migration choices of China's older adults and spatial patterns emerging therefrom (1995-2015)

The steady increase in China's ageing population and an upswing in migration among the country's population, on the whole, has caused a continuous expansion of the scale of older migrants. The migration of older adults not only directly affects the well-being of individual families but also significantly impacts the population structure and economic development of the places of origin and destination. Despite this, in China, the various relevant aspects concerning this age group and, in particular, its migration choices and the patterns thereof have only rarely been the subject of sound research. The study presented in this paper seeks to fill this gap; the present study makes use of the microdata obtained from the national population censuses of 2000 and 2010 and the 1% population sample surveys conducted nationally in 2005 and 2015. The findings of the present study were the following: ① During 1995-2015, the efficiency of older adults' migration was significantly higher in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. ② Older individuals migrating to urban areas are increasingly choosing, for their relocation, economically developed, urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. ③ Relocation of older adults to urban areas was much more than to rural areas. The latter group has a more diverse choice of destination, and the larger migration flow is primarily from developed provinces to relatively underdeveloped provinces. ④ The results of binary logit regression indicated that the factors that significantly and consistently influence the migration decisions of older adults were found to be the following: age, education level, health status, the primary financial resource, children aged ≤ 6 years being members of the household that would receive the migrants, and the average wage of employees. As for the geographical characteristics of the province to which the older adults migrate, a substantial difference was observed between the preferences of older adults migrating to urban regions and those of older adults relocating to rural areas. The findings of the present study provide further insight into the decision-making of older adults regarding migration. Further, these findings constitute an empirical basis for the local governments concerned to devise and implement policies to better cope with an ageing population.