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Author Spotlight: On-Site Biochar Production for Woody Debris Incineration in Forestry
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Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
Thales A P West1,2, Sven Wunder3,4, Erin O Sills5
1Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|August 24, 2023
Summary
Most voluntary avoided-deforestation projects show minimal impact on reducing forest loss. Reductions achieved are often less than claimed, highlighting issues with baseline methodologies for carbon offsets.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Forestry Management
Background:
- Carbon offsets from avoided deforestation rely on performance against projected deforestation (ex ante baselines).
- Evaluating the true impact of these projects is crucial for carbon accounting and conservation incentives.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effectiveness of voluntary avoided-deforestation projects in reducing deforestation.
- To compare project-claimed deforestation reductions with actual counterfactual outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized synthetic control methods for causal inference.
- Analyzed 26 project sites across six countries on three continents.
- Compared ex ante deforestation baselines with ex post counterfactuals based on control areas.
Main Results:
- Most projects did not significantly reduce deforestation.
- For projects that did show reductions, the impact was substantially lower than claimed.
- Discrepancies arise from differences between project baselines and observed deforestation in control areas.
Conclusions:
- Current methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines for carbon offsets require urgent revision.
- Accurate baseline construction is essential for attributing deforestation reductions to projects.
- Revisions are needed to maintain forest conservation incentives and global carbon accounting integrity.
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