Ensemble water quality forecasting based on decomposition, sub-model selection, and adaptive interval

The prediction of effluent quality for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has caused widespread concern due to its essential role in ensuring water quality standards and reducing energy consumption. However, the complex nonlinearity of WWTPs leads to difficulties in forecasting and less attention to forecast uncertainty. A novel ensemble water quality forecasting (EWQF) system is proposed that incorporates data preprocessing, point prediction and interval prediction. The system provides an accurate prediction of effluent quality and analyses this uncertainty, for enabling feed-forward control of WWTPs. Specifically, the original water quality data is decomposed into subsequences containing more information and less noise based on improved variational modal decomposition (IVMD). The optimal sub-model for each sub-series is selected from six prediction models based on the sub-model selection strategy, and the point prediction results for water quality are obtained by combining the prediction results of the sub-models. Robust and reliable prediction interval construction based on adaptive kernel density estimation. The results demonstrate that the EWQF achieves optimal point prediction results (R² = 0.955). The EWQF interval prediction achieves the optimal coverage width criterion (CWC) for different confidence intervals and decision objectives. These results demonstrate that EWQF systems can perform excellent point and interval prediction.