A common [18F]-FDG PET radiomic signature to predict survival in patients with HPV-induced cancers

Locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) and anal and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC and OPSCC) are mostly caused by oncogenic human papillomaviruses (HPV). In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) models based on clinical, biological, and radiomic features extracted from pre-treatment fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ([18F]-FDG PET) images to predict the survival of patients with HPV-induced cancers. For this purpose, cohorts from five institutions were used: two cohorts of patients treated for LACC including 104 patients from Gustave Roussy Campus Cancer (Center 1) and 90 patients from Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust (Center 2), two datasets of patients treated for ASCC composed of 66 patients from Institut du Cancer de Montpellier (Center 3) and 67 patients from Oslo University Hospital (Center 4), and one dataset of 45 OPSCC patients from the University Hospital of Zurich (Center 5). Radiomic features were extracted from baseline [18F]-FDG PET images. The ComBat technique was applied to mitigate intra-scanner variability. A modified consensus nested cross-validation for feature selection and hyperparameter tuning was applied on four ML models to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) using harmonized imaging features and/or clinical and biological variables as inputs. Each model was trained and optimized on Center 1 and Center 3 cohorts and tested on Center 2, Center 4, and Center 5 cohorts. The radiomic-based CoxNet model achieved C-index values of 0.75 and 0.78 for PFS and 0.76, 0.74, and 0.75 for OS on the test sets. Radiomic feature-based models had superior performance compared to the bioclinical ones, and combining radiomic and bioclinical variables did not improve the performances. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV)-based models obtained lower C-index values for a majority of the tested configurations but quite equivalent performance in terms of time-dependent AUCs (td-AUC). The results demonstrate the possibility of identifying common PET-based image signatures for predicting the response of patients with induced HPV pathology, validated on multi-center multiconstructor data.