Pilot feasibility testing of biomathematical model recommendations for personalising sleep timing in shift workers

Sleep disturbances and circadian disruption play a central role in adverse health, safety, and performance outcomes in shift workers. While biomathematical models of sleep and alertness can be used to personalise interventions for shift workers, their practical implementation is undertested. This study tested the feasibility of implementing two biomathematical models-the Phillips-Robinson Model and the Model for Arousal Dynamics-in 28 shift-working nurses, 14 in each group. The study examined the overlap and adherence between model recommendations and sleep behaviours, and changes in sleep following the implementation of recommendations. For both groups combined, the mean (SD) percentage overlap between when a model recommended an individual to sleep and when sleep was obtained was 73.62% (10.24%). Adherence between model recommendations and sleep onset and offset times was significantly higher with the Model of Arousal Dynamics compared to the Phillips-Robinson Model. For the Phillips-Robinson model, 27% of sleep onset and 35% of sleep offset times were within ± 30 min of model recommendations. For the Model of Arousal Dynamics, 49% of sleep onset, and 35% of sleep offset times were within ± 30 min of model recommendations. Compared to pre-study, significant improvements were observed post-study for sleep disturbance (Phillips-Robinson Model), and insomnia severity and sleep-related impairments (Model of Arousal Dynamics). Participants reported that using a digital, automated format for the delivery of sleep recommendations would enable greater uptake. These findings provide a positive proof-of-concept for using biomathematical models to recommend sleep in operational contexts.