A New Version of the Tissue Composition-Based Model for Improving the Mechanism-Based Prediction of Volume of...

In-vitro models are available in the literature for predicting the volume of distribution at steady-state (Vd_ss) of drugs. The mechanistic model refers to the tissue composition-based model (TCM), which includes important factors that govern Vd_ss such as drug physiochemistry and physiological data. The recognized TCM published by Rodgers and Rowland (TCM-RR) and a subsequent adjustment made by Simulations Plus Inc. (TCM-SP) have been shown to be generally less accurate with neutral compared to ionized drugs. Therefore, improving these models for neutral drugs becomes necessary. The objective of this study was to propose a new TCM for improving the prediction of Vd_ss for neutral drugs. The new TCM included two modifications of the published models (i) accentuate the effect of the blood-to-plasma ratio (BPR) that should cover permeated molecules across the biomembranes, which is lacking in these models for neutral compounds, and (ii) use a different approach to estimate the binding in tissues. The new TCM was validated with a large dataset of 202 commercial and proprietary compounds including preclinical and clinical data. All scenario datasets were predicted more accurately with the TCM-New, whereas all statistical parameters indicate that the TCM-New showed significant improvements in terms of accuracy over the TCM-RR and TCM-SP. Predictions of Vd_ss were frequently more accurate for the TCM-new with 83% within twofold error versus only 50% for the TCM-RR. And more than 95% of the predictions were within threefold error and patient interindividual differences can be predicted with the TCM-New, greatly exceeding the accuracy of the published models. Overall, the new TCM incorporating BPR significantly improved the Vd_ss predictions in animals and humans for neutral drugs, and, hence, has the potential to better support the drug discovery and facilitate the first-in-human predictions.