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Characterizing Canadian rural general surgeons: trends over time and 10-year replacement needs.

Odelle Ma1, Kevin Verhoeff2, Kieran Purich2

  • 1Department of Surgery, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta. (Ma, Verhoeff, Purich, Strickland); Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta. (Skinner, Dhaliwal) odelle@ualberta.ca.

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Summary

Canada needs 370 rural surgeons in the next decade, requiring 43% of general surgery graduates to practice rurally. This addresses an increasing demand for rural general surgery services.

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Area of Science:

  • Medical Workforce Analysis
  • Rural Health Services
  • Surgical Demographics

Background:

  • Accurate characterization of rural surgeons is crucial for effective recruitment.
  • Understanding demographic trends informs future rural surgical workforce planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and analyze demographic trends among rural surgeons in Canada.
  • To predict the rural surgical workforce requirements for the next decade.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective observational study of rural general surgeons in Canada (population ≤ 100,000).
  • Data collected from provincial colleges of physicians and surgeons.
  • Workforce demand modeled based on population growth, career length, and new graduate entry.

Main Results:

  • Study included 760 rural general surgeons; 75% graduated post-1989, 73% were Canadian medical graduates, 82% lacked fellowship.
  • Significant increase in Canadian-trained rural surgeons (37% pre-1969 to 91% post-2009).
  • Projected demand for 370 rural surgeons by 2031, necessitating 43% of general surgery graduates entering rural practice.

Conclusions:

  • Rural general surgeons in Canada exhibit diverse demographic characteristics.
  • Projected increase in opportunities within rural general surgery.
  • Essential to recruit and train general surgery graduates for rural community service.