Agricultural Methane Emissions in China: Inventories, Driving Forces and Mitigation Strategies

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Agricultural Science
• Climate Change Research

Background:

• China is the world's largest emitter of agricultural methane (AGM).
• Understanding AGM's spatial distribution, drivers, and future trends is crucial for China's 2060 carbon neutrality goals.
• Current research on these aspects is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate China's AGM emissions from 2010-2020.
• To identify the key drivers of AGM emissions and reductions.
• To project future AGM emission trends under different scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Estimation of AGM emissions in China (2010-2020).
• Decomposition of emission factors using the LMDI model.
• Projection of future emissions using SSP-RCP scenarios.

Main Results:

• China's AGM emissions reached 23.39 Tg in 2020, with enteric fermentation as the primary source (43.9%).
• Western China accounted for 39.3% of total AGM emissions.
• Emission intensity and urbanization were key drivers of AGM reduction in livestock and rice cultivation sectors.

Conclusions:

• AGM emissions in China can be reduced by approximately 90% by 2060 through integrated strategies.
• Findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing AGM emission reduction policies in China and globally.
• The study supports targeted emission control pathways for achieving carbon neutrality.