Temporal and spatial distribution of polio vaccine coverage in Brazil between 1997 and 2021

To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of polio vaccine coverage in Brazilian states.

An ecological time series study was conducted using data from the National Immunization Program Information System. The analyzed period was from 1997 to 2021. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change through regressions. QGIS 3.10.7 software was used to construct thematic maps. GeoDa 1.20.0.10 software was used to estimate spatial autocorrelation using the Global Moran's Index and Local Moran's Index.

National vaccine coverage in 1997 was 89.27%, decreasing to 61.32% in 2021. The trend analysis indicated an average annual decrease of 1.5% in polio vaccine coverage in Brazil. Across the country, 17 states showed a statistically significant reduction in the average annual percentage change rate. The highest average reduction rates in vaccine coverage among Brazilian states were observed in Amapá (-3.7%; 95%CI -6.0; -1.4) and Pernambuco (-3.3%; 95%CI -4.0; -2.5). In the spatial analysis, in Moran Global, a positive autocorrelation was identified in the years 2012 to 2021 (p<0.02), with an index value of 0.361, which means that geographically close areas tended to have similar levels of vaccination coverage.

There was significant heterogeneity in coverage among states and a strong decrease trend in vaccination rates, which could facilitate the circulation of the poliovirus and pose a threat to the susceptible population.