Changing epidemiology of cirrhosis from 2010 to 2019: results from the Global Burden Disease study 2019

Liver cirrhosis is a significant yet largely preventable and underappreciated cause of global health loss. This study aimed to profile the global and regional burdens of liver cirrhosis between 2010 and 2019 and the contributions of various aetiologies.

Data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of cirrhosis were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The burden of cirrhosis was estimated by age, sex, region, aetiology, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The temporal trend was quantified using the annual percentage changes (APC.).

Globally, there were 2.05 million new cases and 1.47 million deaths due to cirrhosis in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for cirrhosis increased slightly from 25.19 to 25.35 worldwide, while the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs (ASDALYs) decreased from 20.37 to 18.00 and 639.86 to 560.43, respectively. Cirrhosis incidence, mortality and DALYs were consistently higher in males than females. Stratification according to the socio-demographic index (SDI) revealed that low SDI countries had the highest ASDR and ASDALYs in 2019, while middle SDI countries had the highest ASIR. Regarding the aetiology of cirrhosis, hepatitis C accounted for the largest proportion of cirrhosis-related incidence (26.9%), death (26.8%) and DALYs (26.3%); however, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) exhibited a rapidly growing cause of incident cirrhosis (+26.7%), cirrhosis-related death (+25.1%), and DALYs (+21.0%) worldwide during this period. The ASIR for NAFLD also significantly increased with APC 1.080 over the study period.

Albeit the global burden of cirrhosis incidence increased from 2010 to 2019, cirrhosis-associated deaths and DALYs declined significantly. Notably, NAFLD exhibited the most significant increase as a contributor to cirrhosis worldwide.