Application of hydraulic modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for cloudburst management in...

Urban cloudburst management may include the intentional temporary storage of flood water in green recreational areas. In cities with combined sewers, this will expose the population visiting the area to sewage and increase the risk of diarrhoeal disease. We present a unique approach to estimate the risk of diarrhoeal disease after urban flooding. The exposure scenario was: rainwater mixed with sewage flows into a park; sewage with pathogens deposit on the grass; after discharge, a baby plays on the grass and is exposed to the pathogens in the deposited sewage by hand-to-mouth transfer. The work included modelling the transport of sewage into four parks intended to be flooded during future cloudbursts. A flood simulation experiment was conducted to estimate the deposition of pathogens from sewage to grass and transfer from grass to hand. Hand-to-mouth transfer, based on literature values, was used to estimate the ingested dose of pathogens. The probability of illness was estimated by QMRA. The estimated average probability of illness varied between 0.03 and 17%. If the probability of illness is considered unacceptable, the cloudburst plans should be changed, or interventions, e.g. informing the public about the risk or restricting access to the flooded area, should be implemented.