Analysis of sampling strategies for pulse loads of SARS-CoV-2: implications for wastewater-based epidemiology

A faecal transport model was applied to a 11.3 km² wastewater servicing area in Toronto, Ontario, Canada to explore the role that different wastewater sampling campaigns have on estimating the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a population of 60,000. A stochastic wastewater and water quality model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of 11 sampling campaigns during periods of high and low COVID-19 infection among the population, tested using virtual sampling during dry-weather flow. The virtual sampling campaigns were based on the most common automatic sampler programming capabilities and widely used wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) sampling campaigns reported in the literature. Sampling campaigns differ in weighting method (time, volume, or flow-weighted sampling), sample count, collection period, or sample time. Results suggest that grab samples should be avoided and/or that sampling campaigns with the greatest sample counts and durations are the most robust at capturing COVID-19 infection among the population. Most surprisingly, changes to the weighting method were negligible indicating that a greater number of samples, and larger sample volumes are preferred. This work suggests that investment in flow monitoring equipment for flow- or volume-weighted sampling will not improve WBE results, and that standard time based sampling is sufficient.