Impact of Diagnosis-to-Ablation Time on AF Recurrence: Pronounced the First 3 Years, Irrelevant Thereafter

Diagnosis-to-ablation time (DAT) strongly predicts recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after ablation. Whether this association holds with any lower and/or upper limits is unknown.

The goal of this study was to assess the impact of DAT on AF recurrence in search of lower and upper DAT thresholds.

A total of 2,000 patients with AF from 2 cohorts of 1,000 patients each (69% male; age 62 ± 10 years) undergoing pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) between 2005-2014 and 2017-2019 were followed up for 3 years.

Clinical success was achieved in 61.7% of patients. Median DAT decreased over time from 36 months (Q1-Q3: 12-72 months) in the first cohort to 12 months (Q1-Q3: 5-48 months) in the second cohort (P < 0.001). A multivariable Cox proportional hazards fitted model of AF recurrence rate in relation to DAT (range: 0-288 months) showed a steep rise in AF recurrence, from 27% to 40% in the first 36 months (d%/dt = 0.36), with a first inflection point at 36 months, and a less steep rise to 45% until 90 months (d%/dt = 0.09), with flattening beyond 90 months (d%/dt = 0.026). Rise in AF recurrence rate in the first 36 months was higher in patients with persistent AF (from 40% to 54%; d%/dt = 0.39) than in patients with paroxysmal AF (19% to 29%; d%/dt = 0.28).

The association between DAT and AF recurrence has no lower limit ("the shorter the better"), whereas little gain is to be expected beyond 36 months ("the longer the more irrelevant"). Our data advocate for performing PVI as early as possible, certainly within 3 years of AF diagnosis, and even more so in persistent AF.