[Changes in epidemic intensity of influenza during 2014-2020 in Shanghai]

Objective: To evaluate the performance of the influenza surveillance network and compare the epidemic intensity of influenza during 2014-2020 in Shanghai. Methods: Based on the weekly reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza cases from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2020. This study first evaluated the data reporting and specimen collection of ILI cases for each sentinel hospital, and then calculated the percentage of ILI (ILI%), the proportion of specimens tested positive for influenza, and the incidence of influenza among all ILI outpatient and emergency visits to measure the epidemic intensity of influenza. Finally, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to quantify the changes in epidemic intensity of influenza in 2020. Results: The proportion of influenza surveillance sentinel hospitals with a score of less than 5 in the evaluation of ILI data reporting and samples collection were 9.68% and 21.05% in 2020 in Shanghai, respectively. ILI% was estimated to be 1.51% (95%CI: 1.50%-1.51%) and 2.31% (95%CI: 2.30%-2.32%), respectively for 2014-2019 and 2020; the proportion of specimens tested positive was 24.27% (95%CI: 24.02%- 24.51%) and 7.15% (95%CI: 6.78%-7.54%), respectively; and the incidence of influenza was 3.66‰ (95%CI: 3.62‰-3.70‰) and 1.65‰ (95%CI: 1.57‰-1.74‰), respectively. ARIMA model showed that ILI% was increased by 45.25% in 2020 in Shanghai, and the proportion of specimens tested positive and the incidence of influenza were reduced by 78.45% and 51.80%, respectively. Conclusions: In 2020, the performance of influenza surveillance system has changed, ILI% has increased, the proportion of specimens tested positive and the incidence of influenza has decreased in Shanghai. The change in the quality of influenza surveillance is also a potential factor affecting the epidemic intensity of influenza. In the future, the quality control of influenza surveillance network still needs to be further strengthened.