Machine-Learning Prediction of Capsular Contraction after Two-Stage Breast Reconstruction

Two-stage breast reconstruction is a common technique used to restore preoperative appearance in patients undergoing mastectomy. However, capsular contracture may develop and lead to implant failure and significant morbidity. The objective of this study is to build a machine-learning model that can determine the risk of developing contracture formation after two-stage breast reconstruction.

A total of 209 women (406 samples) were included in the study cohort. Patient characteristics that were readily accessible at the preoperative visit and details pertaining to the surgical approach were used as input data for the machine-learning model. Supervised learning models were assessed using 5-fold cross validation. A neural network model is also evaluated using a 0.8/0.1/0.1 train/validate/test split.

Among the subjects, 144 (35.47%) developed capsular contracture. Older age, smaller nipple-inframammary fold distance, retropectoral implant placement, synthetic mesh usage, and postoperative radiation increased the odds of capsular contracture (p < 0.05). The neural network achieved the best performance metrics among the models tested, with a test accuracy of 0.82 and area under receiver operative curve of 0.79.

To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses a neural network to predict the development of capsular contraction after two-stage implant-based reconstruction. At the preoperative visit, surgeons may counsel high-risk patients on the potential need for further revisions or guide them toward autologous reconstruction.