Quantifying population-level conservation impacts for a perpetual conservation program on private land.

Area of Science:

• Ecological conservation
• Environmental impact assessment
• Wildlife management

Background:

• Area-based conservation targets are common but may not reflect intervention effectiveness.
• Impact evaluations often focus on deforestation, with fewer studies on dynamic systems or diverse outcomes due to data limitations.
• Simulations can estimate program effects when empirical data is scarce.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the impact of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Small Wetlands Acquisition Program (SWAP) on wetland area and waterfowl abundance.
• To simulate wetland drainage impacts over a ten-year period in the Prairie Pothole Region.
• To provide a plausible range of program effect sizes for SWAP.

Main Methods:

• Utilized simulations of wetland drainage to model program impacts.
• Focused on the Prairie Pothole Region across North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana.
• Quantified effects on wetland area, breeding waterfowl, and brood abundance.

Main Results:

• Estimated an avoided loss of 0.00% to 0.02% in carrying capacity for broods and breeding waterfowl due to SWAP (2008-2017).
• Indicated a low, short-term programmatic impact.
• Highlighted the potential for significant long-term cumulative conservation benefits due to SWAP's perpetual nature.

Conclusions:

• The SWAP demonstrated a limited direct impact on wetland and waterfowl populations in the short term.
• The program's continuous operation suggests a capacity for greater cumulative conservation success in the future.
• Complementing area-based metrics with impact evaluations, even through simulation, is crucial for understanding conservation effectiveness.