The prognostic value of TMB in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Tumor mutation burden (TMB) has been validated as a predictive biomarker for immunotherapy response and survival in numerous cancer types. Limited data is available on the inherent prognostic role of TMB in early-stage tumors.

To evaluate the prognostic role of TMB in early-stage, resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Systematic review and meta-analysis of pertinent prospective and retrospective studies.

Publication search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases. Based on the level of heterogeneity, a random- or fixed-effects model was used to calculate pooled effects of hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The source of heterogeneity was investigated using sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, and publication bias assessment.

Ten studies comprising 2520 patients were included in this analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in OS (HR, 1.18, 95% CI, 0.70, 1.33; p 0.53, I² = 80%; p_het < 0.0001) and DFS (HR, 1.18, 95% CI, 0.91, 1.52; p = 0.53, I² = 75%; p = 0.0001) between the high-TMB and low-TMB group. Subgroup analyses indicated that East Asian ethnicity, and TMB detected using whole exome sequencing, and studies with <100 patients had poor DFS in the high-TMB group.

The inherent prognostic role of TMB is limited in early-stage NSCLC. Ethnic differences in mutation burden must be considered while designing future trials on neoadjuvant immunotherapy. Further research in the harmonization and standardization of panel-based TMB is essential for its widespread clinical utility.Registration: CRD42023392846.