A data-driven approach to multiple-stressor impact assessment for a marine protected area

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Conservation science
• Ecosystem management

Background:

• Coastal environments are vulnerable to cumulative threats from marine, land, and atmospheric realms.
• Existing linear models may inaccurately assess the nonlinear impacts of multiple stressors on ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a data-driven approach for assessing cumulative impacts on ecosystems.
• To explore nonlinear relationships between various threats and a temperate reef fish community.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of no-take zones (NTZs) in mitigating cumulative threats.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data on water quality, commercial and recreational fishing, climate change, and urbanization to create a cumulative threat map.
• Employed statistical models of fish abundance to quantify threat associations and predict high-impact areas.
• Assessed the performance of NTZs within marine protected area networks.

Main Results:

• Fishing exerted a greater impact on fish abundance than water quality threats.
• Removing fishing within NTZs led to a 337% increase in invertivore abundance, versus 11% for water quality.
• Fishing activities outside NTZs demonstrably affected fish populations within NTZs.

Conclusions:

• Quantifying the spatial influence of multiple cumulative threats is crucial for effective coastal management.
• Management strategies must account for nonlinear threat interactions and the pervasive impact of fishing.
• Integrated approaches are necessary to address the complex challenges facing coastal ecosystems and marine protected areas.