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How does population aging affect China's energy consumption?

Yuehan Yu1, Hao Feng1, Rong Yuan2

  • 1College of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing University, South University Town Road 55, Chongqing, 401331, China.

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China's aging population is decreasing energy consumption long-term. This study examines population aging's impact on energy use, finding scale and technology effects mediate this trend.

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Energy consumptionMediating mechanismPMGPopulation agingThreshold effect

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Economics
  • Demography

Background:

  • China faces a growing elderly population, impacting economic development and energy demands.
  • Understanding the relationship between demographic shifts and energy consumption is crucial for sustainable policies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the short and long-term effects of population aging on energy consumption in China (1997-2020).
  • To explore the mediating and threshold effects influencing this relationship.

Main Methods:

  • Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation for long-term and short-term impacts.
  • Mediating effects and threshold effects models to analyze underlying mechanisms.

Main Results:

  • Population aging has a negative long-term impact on energy consumption (1% aging increase reduces consumption by 0.348%).
  • GDP per capita and capital stock positively correlate with energy consumption; industrial structure shows a negative correlation.
  • Technological progress significantly increases energy consumption, while scale and technological effects mediate the negative impact of aging.

Conclusions:

  • Population aging negatively impacts energy consumption in China through scale and technological effects.
  • A nonlinear relationship exists between population aging and energy consumption, influenced by population size and technology.
  • Policy recommendations include managing elderly population growth, improving energy efficiency, and promoting sustainable technologies.