Using multi criteria decision analysis in a geographical information system framework to assess drought risk

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Drought risk assessment traditionally overlooks land use change and seasonal climate variations.
• Previous studies have not analyzed drought risk across distinct seasons (wet, cool, hot).

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate the application of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis - Geographical Information Systems (MCDA-GIS) methodology for drought risk assessment.
• To analyze drought risk considering land use change and seasonal climate variations.
• To investigate potential drought risk mitigation strategies through land use changes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis - Geographical Information Systems (MCDA-GIS) methodology in the Mun river basin.
• Incorporated land use change and climate data, splitting annual risk into wet, cool, and hot seasons.
• Expert rankings identified rainfall, evapotranspiration, and maximum temperature as key climatic factors.

Main Results:

• The MCDA-GIS methodology revealed distinct spatial and temporal drought risk patterns across seasons.
• Cool months showed increased risk in the north and east; hot months in the east and west.
• Wet season risk was highest in the west, with specific provincial hotspots identified for each season.

Conclusions:

• The MCDA-GIS methodology provides a flexible and detailed approach to drought risk assessment, applicable globally.
• Land use changes, such as reforestation or altered crop varieties, can effectively decrease future drought risk.
• Seasonal analysis is crucial for understanding and mitigating water security issues related to drought.