Prognostic implications of left ventricular ejection fraction trajectory changes in heart failure

The latest guidelines recommended to assess the trajectory of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with heart failure (HF). However, there is limited data on the trajectory of LVEF in real-world settings. In this study, we investigated the frequency and prognostic implications of changes in LVEF trajectory.

Patients were divided into intensified LVEF, static LVEF, and worsening LVEF groups based on the transitions of HF types from baseline to follow-up. The intensified and worsening LVEF groups were further subdivided into mild (≤10% absolute changes of LVEF) and significant (>10% absolute changes of LVEF) increase or decrease groups according to the magnitude of change. The incidences and associations of changes in LVEF with patient outcomes were analyzed.

Among the 2,429 patients in the study cohort, 38.3% of HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and 37.6% of HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) showed an improvement in their LVEF. In contrast, a decline in LVEF was observed in 19.3% of HF patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and 34.9% of those with HFmrEF. Cox regression analysis showed that the intensified LVEF group was associated with a lower risk of composite endpoints, while the worsening LVEF group yielded opposite findings. Subgroup analysis revealed that compared to those with mild changes in LVEF, baseline HFrEF patients with significant increase showed a lower risk of composite outcome, while baseline HFpEF patients were the opposite.

The trajectories of LVEF changes are strongly correlated with outcomes in patients with HF who had prior history of HF admission. The most significant prognostic implications observed in patients with significant LVEF changes. Trajectory LVEF and type of HF changes are useful tools recommended for prognostication.