Topographic and climatic controls of peatland distribution on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) hosts a variety of mountain peatlands that are sensitive to the amplified warming in this region. However, we still lack a basic understanding of environmental and climatic factors controlling peatland distribution in the region. Here we use a bioclimatic envelope model (PeatStash) and environmental analysis that utilise three peatland datasets-(a) the well-studied Zoige peatland complex, (b) a literature-based dataset of TP peatlands sites, and (c) an existing global peatland map (PEATMAP)-to investigate major drivers of peatland distribution in the TP. The Zoige peatland complex is defined by gentle slopes (< 2°), mean annual temperature at 0-2 °C, and soil moisture index > 1.7, much narrower thresholds than those stemming from PEATMAP. Using these narrower thresholds to predict future changes, we found that the Zoige peatland complex will shrink greatly under full-range future warming scenarios (both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Modelling peatland distribution in the entire TP remains challenging because accurate environmental and climate data at high resolution and a reliable peatland distribution map are still lacking. Improved peatland mapping supported by ground-truthing is necessary to understand drivers of peatland distribution, assess carbon storage and other ecosystem services, and predict the TP's peatlands fate under climate change.