Fluid sequestration: an early indicator of mortality in acute pancreatitis

Complete daily intake and output charts were available for 218 patients with acute pancreatitis. The patients were divided into three groups according to the relation between fluid intake and output. In 105 patients in whom there was negligible fluid sequestration (daily output within 2 litres of intake) there were six deaths (5.8 per cent). In 69 patients the daily fluid intake exceeded the output by 2 litres or more but this imbalance lasted for 48 h or less; six patients died (8.7 per cent). The remaining 44 patients sequestered 2 litres or more of fluid per day for more than 48 h or until death. Thirty-eight patients in this group died (86.4 per cent). Fluid sequestration of 2 litres or more per day, and lasting longer than 48 h, is an accurate and simple predictor of mortality in acute pancreatitis. In this study it had a sensitivity of 76 per cent and a specificity of 96 per cent. The predictive value of a positive result was 86 per cent and of a negative result 93 per cent (efficiency 92 per cent).