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Interim decision making in seamless trial designs: An application in an adaptive dose-finding study in a rare kidney
Olympia Papachristofi1, Björn Bornkamp1, Melanie Wright1
1Clinical Development and Analytics, Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.
Abstract:
Adaptive seamless trial designs, combining the learning and confirming cycles of drug development in a single trial, have gained popularity in recent years. Adaptations may include dose selection, sample size re-estimation and enrichment of the study population. Despite methodological advances and recognition of the potential efficiency gains such designs offer, their implementation, including how to enable efficient decision making on the adaptations in interim analyzes, remains a key challenge in their adoption. This manuscript uses a case study of an adaptive seamless proof-of-concept (Phase 2a)/dose-finding (Phase 2b) to showcase potential adaptive features that can be implemented in trial designs at earlier development stages and the role of simulations in assessing the design operating characteristics and specifying the decision rules for the adaptations. It further outlines the elements needed to support successful interim analysis decision making on the adaptations while safeguarding study integrity, including the role of different stakeholders, interactive simulation-based tools to facilitate decision making and operational aspects requiring preplanning. The benefits of the adaptive Phase 2a/2b design chosen compared to following the traditional two separate studies (2a and 2b) paradigm are discussed. With careful planning and appreciation of their complexity and components needed for their implementation, seamless adaptive designs have the potential to yield significant savings both in terms of time and resources.
Insights
Adaptive seamless trial designs integrate learning and confirming phases, improving drug development efficiency. Simulations and careful planning are key for successful implementation and decision-making in these complex trials.
Area of Science:
- Clinical Trial Design
- Pharmaceutical Development
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Adaptive seamless trial designs merge drug development phases for efficiency.
- Adaptations include dose selection, sample size adjustments, and population enrichment.
- Implementation challenges persist, particularly in interim analysis decision-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To showcase adaptive features in early-stage drug development using a Phase 2a/2b case study.
- To demonstrate the role of simulations in evaluating adaptive design operating characteristics and decision rules.
- To outline requirements for successful interim analysis decision-making and operational aspects.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a case study of an adaptive seamless proof-of-concept (Phase 2a)/dose-finding (Phase 2b) trial.
- Employed simulations to assess design operating characteristics and define adaptation decision rules.
- Identified key elements for interim analysis decision-making, stakeholder roles, and preplanning.
Main Results:
- Adaptive seamless designs offer potential time and resource savings compared to traditional separate studies.
- Simulations are crucial for understanding design performance and setting decision criteria.
- Successful implementation requires careful planning, stakeholder involvement, and simulation-based tools.
Conclusions:
- Seamless adaptive designs can significantly accelerate drug development.
- Effective implementation hinges on robust simulation, clear decision rules, and proactive operational planning.
- These designs represent a valuable advancement over traditional trial paradigms when meticulously executed.
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