Unicorn, Hare, or Tortoise? Using Machine Learning to Predict Working Memory Training Performance

People differ considerably in the extent to which they benefit from working memory (WM) training. Although there is increasing research focusing on individual differences associated with WM training outcomes, we still lack an understanding of which specific individual differences, and in what combination, contribute to inter-individual variations in training trajectories. In the current study, 568 undergraduates completed one of several N-back intervention variants over the course of two weeks. Participants' training trajectories were clustered into three distinct training patterns (high performers, intermediate performers, and low performers). We applied machine-learning algorithms to train a binary tree model to predict individuals' training patterns relying on several individual difference variables that have been identified as relevant in previous literature. These individual difference variables included pre-existing cognitive abilities, personality characteristics, motivational factors, video game experience, health status, bilingualism, and socioeconomic status. We found that our classification model showed good predictive power in distinguishing between high performers and relatively lower performers. Furthermore, we found that openness and pre-existing WM capacity to be the two most important factors in distinguishing between high and low performers. However, among low performers, openness and video game background were the most significant predictors of their learning persistence. In conclusion, it is possible to predict individual training performance using participant characteristics before training, which could inform the development of personalized interventions.