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Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Propensity Score using the Military Health System Data Repository and National Death Index

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Published on: January 8, 2020

Retrospective analysis of equity-based optimization for COVID-19 vaccine allocation.

Erin Stafford¹, Dobromir Dimitrov^1,2, Rachel Ceballos^3,4

¹Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

|September 11, 2023

Summary

COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies reveal a trade-off between reducing disease burden and minimizing racial inequities. Increasing vaccine supply is key to optimizing both, especially for marginalized communities.

Keywords:

COVID-19 equity mathematical modeling vaccine allocation

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling
Public Health Policy

Background:

Marginalized racial and ethnic groups experienced disproportionate COVID-19 impacts in the US.
Understanding and addressing these health disparities is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and analyze race-conscious mathematical models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
To evaluate counterfactual COVID-19 vaccination strategies aimed at minimizing disease burden and racial inequity.

Main Methods:

Constructed an age- and race-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Fitted the model to 2020 Oregon data, stratifying by non-Hispanic White persons and BIPOC groups.
Analyzed hypothetical vaccination strategies in early 2021 with limited vaccine supply.

Main Results:

A trade-off exists between minimizing overall disease burden and racial inequity with low vaccine coverage (10%).
Prioritizing disease burden favored older groups; prioritizing equity favored younger BIPOC groups.
Increased vaccine supply (20-30% coverage) significantly lessened the trade-off, enabling optimization of both equity and mortality.

Conclusions:

Mathematical modeling provides a framework for quantifying and minimizing racial inequity in public health interventions.
Vaccine allocation strategies must consider both disease burden and equity, with supply being a critical factor.
A race-conscious approach is essential for addressing health disparities in current and future pandemics.