Estimation of natural methane emissions from the largest oil sand deposits on earth

Worldwide methane emission by various industrial sources is one of the important human concerns due to its serious climate and air-quality implications. This study investigates less-considered diffusive natural methane emissions from the world's largest oil sand deposits. An analytical model, considering the first-order methane degradation, in combination with Monte Carlo simulations, is used to quantitatively characterize diffusive methane emissions from Alberta's oil sands formations. The results show that the average diffusive methane emissions from Alberta's oil sands formations is 1.56 × 10^-4 kg/m²/year at the 90th percentile of cumulative probability. The results also indicate an annual diffusive methane emissions rate of 0.857 ± 0.013 Million tons of CO₂e/year (MtCO₂e/year) from Alberta's oil sands formations. This finding suggests that natural diffusive leakages from the oil sands contribute an additional 1.659 ± 0.025 and 5.194 ± 0.079% to recent Canada's 2019 and Alberta's 2020 methane emission estimates from the upstream oil and gas sector, respectively. The developed model combined with Monte Carlo simulations can be used as a tool for assessing methane emissions and current inventories.