Four Assessment Tools for Predicting Mortality and Adverse Events in Surgical Patients With Sepsis and Septic Shock:...

The mortality rate for sepsis and septic shock in surgical patients is approximately 36%, which is higher than that of other medical patients. Predisposition, infection/injury, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) is currently the most widely used tool for assessing patients with surgical sepsis. However, it is not a standardized assessment tool for surgical patients in general.

The purposes of this study were to (a) create a modified PIRO (mPIRO) that adds a count of platelets and does not include a body temperature reading; (b) test the sensitivity and specificity of the mPIRO for predicting mortality and adverse events among patients with surgical sepsis; and (c) compare the predictive accuracy of the mPIRO, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA, and PIRO tools.

A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted. Two thousand fifty-five patient medical records were reviewed, with 103 identified as meeting the inclusion criteria.

Compared with the other tools, mPIRO ≥ 4 achieved better sensitivity (90.5%) in predicting mortality and high sensitivity (72%) and specificity (80%) in predicting adverse events. mPIRO was the most accurate predictor of mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.83) among the tools considered. SOFA and mPIRO were the first and second most accurate predictor of adverse events, respectively, with respective AUC values of 0.86 and 0.82.

mPIRO, which employs an easy-to-use scoring system, is a valid assessment tool with good sensitivity and AUC for predicting both mortality and adverse events in patients with surgical sepsis. We recommend using mPIRO ≥ 3 as an indicator of potential adverse events.