Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for leptospirosis epidemic

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology and Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health Interventions
• Optimal Control Theory Applications

Background:

• Leptospirosis poses a significant public health challenge, necessitating effective control strategies.
• Understanding the dynamics of leptospirosis transmission is crucial for designing interventions.
• Previous models often lack dynamic, cost-effectiveness analyses of integrated control measures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To apply optimal control theory to an autonomous leptospirosis epidemic model.
• To evaluate the impact of four time-dependent control strategies on disease dynamics.
• To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of different intervention strategies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to derive the optimality system for the control problem.
• Employed numerical simulations of the optimality system using the Forward-Backward Sweep method in Matlab.
• Conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

Main Results:

• The combination of all four optimal control measures demonstrated the highest effectiveness in minimizing disease spread and impact.
• Numerical simulations graphically presented the dynamics with and without various control strategies.
• Rodenticide control-only strategy identified as the most cost-effective when resources are limited.

Conclusions:

• Integrated control strategies, guided by optimal control theory, are superior for comprehensive disease management.
• Rodenticide intervention offers a highly cost-effective approach for leptospirosis control, particularly under resource constraints.
• The study provides a framework for optimizing public health interventions against infectious diseases like leptospirosis.