Linear programming the Ramsar convention's criterion IV (case study: Shadegan Wetland, West Asia)

Wetland ecosystems provide critical ecological services to both humans and wildlife. However, many wetlands around the world are facing challenges that threaten their ecological integrity and jeopardize their status as Ramsar Convention sites. The Shadegan Wetland, a Ramsar site since 1975, has been on the Montreux Record since 1993 due to changing conditions in the wetland. This study aims to utilize linear programming (LP) techniques to evaluate the status of criterion IV of the Ramsar Convention within the Shadegan Wetland. Using mathematical language and Excel software, we defined criterion IV and developed a linear model. The Lingo software was employed to verify the model by setting constraints for proxy variables (X variables). We selected constraints based on extreme climatic conditions, such as energy and water limitations, during the study period while considering the trend of each variable. By identifying effective interventions for promoting sustainable use of the wetland while preserving its ecological balance, the LP can support the efforts to re-nominate the Shadegan Wetland as a Ramsar site. Considering the critical conditions, the lowest value of Z in the studied period unravels the critical year as the target. Based on the result, 2015 with the lowest value of the Z index (- 0.36) was identified as the critical year in the entire study period starting from 2001-2019. In the critical year itself, the population of birds equals 50,000 birds, while the average population of birds over the course of the past 20 years was nearly 37,000 birds.