Ensemble Machine Learning Approaches Based on Molecular Descriptors and Graph Convolutional Networks for Predicting...

Multidrug resistance (MDR1) and breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP) play important roles in drug absorption and distribution. Computational prediction of substrates for both transporters can help reduce time in drug discovery. This study aimed to predict the efflux activity of MDR1 and BCRP using multiple machine learning approaches with molecular descriptors and graph convolutional networks (GCNs). In vitro efflux activity was determined using MDR1- and BCRP-expressing cells. Predictive performance was assessed using an in-house dataset with a chronological split and an external dataset. CatBoost and support vector regression showed the best predictive performance for MDR1 and BCRP efflux activities, respectively, of the 25 descriptor-based machine learning methods based on the coefficient of determination (R²). The single-task GCN showed a slightly lower performance than descriptor-based prediction in the in-house dataset. In both approaches, the percentage of compounds predicted within twofold of the observed values in the external dataset was lower than that in the in-house dataset. Multi-task GCN did not show any improvements, whereas multimodal GCN increased the predictive performance of BCRP efflux activity compared with single-task GCN. Furthermore, the ensemble approach of descriptor-based machine learning and GCN achieved the highest predictive performance with R² values of 0.706 and 0.587 in MDR1 and BCRP, respectively, in time-split test sets. This result suggests that two different approaches to represent molecular structures complement each other in terms of molecular characteristics. Our study demonstrated that predictive models using advanced machine learning approaches are beneficial for identifying potential substrate liability of both MDR1 and BCRP.