Routine MRI Among Patients With a Suspected Scaphoid Fracture Risks Overdiagnosis

In the setting of a suspected scaphoid fracture, MRI may result in overdiagnosis and potential overtreatment. This is in part because of the low prevalence of true fractures among suspected fractures, but also because of potentially misleading variations in signal that may be more common than fracture-related signal changes. To better understand the risk of overdiagnosis, we first need insight into the relative prevalence of useful and potentially distracting signal changes among patients with a suspected scaphoid fracture.

What is the proportion of signal changes representing definite and possible scaphoid fractures relative to other types of signal changes on MRI among patients with a suspected scaphoid fracture?

In a retrospective study in an orthopaedic trauma clinic associated with a Level I trauma center, we evaluated MR images of patients 16 years and older with a clinically suspected scaphoid fracture. At our institution, patients with symptoms and signs of a possible scaphoid fracture and negative radiographs undergo MRI scanning. Between January 1, 2012, and September 1, 2019, a total of 310 patients 16 years or older had an MRI to evaluate a suspected scaphoid fracture. Exclusion criteria included a scaphoid fracture that was visible on radiographs before MRI as reported by the radiologist (four patients), no available radiographs before MRI (two), MRI more than 3 weeks after injury (28), unknown date of injury (nine), and repeat or bilateral MRI scans (11), leaving 256 MR images for analysis. Sixty percent (153) of patients were women, and the median age was 34 years (IQR 21 to 50 years). The images were taken a median of 8 days (IQR 2 to 12 days) after injury. MR images were screened for the presence of scaphoid signal changes. We identified the following patterns of signal change with a reliability of kappa 0.62: definite scaphoid fracture, possible scaphoid fracture, signal in the waist area other than possible or definite fractures, and other signal changes. A definite scaphoid fracture was defined as a linear, focal, and bicortical signal abnormality, with adjacent edema and a relatively transverse orientation relative to the scaphoid long axis. The transverse linear signal was visible on more than one cut in multiple planes. A possible scaphoid fracture had a transverse linear signal on more than one cut on sagittal or coronal planes, with or without adjacent edema.

Six percent (16 of 256) of MR images were categorized as revealing definite (2% [four of 256]) or possible (5% [12 of 256]) scaphoid fractures, whereas 29% (74 of 256) were categorized as revealing nonspecific signal changes at the waist (14% [35 of 256]) and other areas (15% [39 of 256]). Of the 51 patients with scaphoid waist signal changes, 69% (35) were categorized as having distracting and potentially misleading MRI findings.

The high prevalence of signal changes that are distracting and potentially misleading, the low prevalence of signal changes that clearly represent a scaphoid fracture, and the low pretest odds of a true fracture among patients with a suspected scaphoid fracture illustrate that routine MRI of suspected scaphoid fractures carries a notable risk of overdiagnosis and potential overtreatment. Two alternative strategies are supported by preliminary evidence and merit additional attention: more-selective use of MRI in people deemed at higher risk according to a clinical prediction rule and strategies for involving the patient in decisions regarding how to manage the notably small risk of future symptomatic nonunion.

Level IV, diagnostic study.