Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China's 1.5 °C Climate Target
Tao Dai1,2, Yan-Fei Liu3, Peng Wang4,5
1Institute of Mineral Resource, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China.
Environmental Science & Technology
|September 14, 2023
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Materials Science
- Environmental Science
- Energy Policy
Background:
- Neodymium-praseodymium-dysprosium-iron-niobium (NdFeB) magnets are crucial for low-carbon technologies like wind turbines and electric vehicles.
- Dysprosium (Dy) addition is essential to enhance NdFeB magnet performance at elevated temperatures, particularly their Curie point.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of a 1.5 °C climate target on China's dysprosium (Dy) supply chain for NdFeB magnets.
- To explore future trends and innovation strategies for Dy and NdFeB linkages under various climate scenarios in China.
Main Methods:
- Scenario analysis of Dy demand under climate targets.
- Evaluation of innovation strategies: material substitution, reduction, and recycling.
- Assessment of global REE supply chain dynamics and competition.
Main Results:
- China's Dy demand for the 1.5 °C target could exhaust global reserves within 2-3 decades.
- Innovation strategies can reduce China's cumulative Dy demand by 48%-68%.
- Significant competition for Dy resources is anticipated from the US, EU, and other nations.
Conclusions:
- China's Dy demand poses a challenge to global supply chains under ambitious climate goals.
- Cooperation in REE supply chains and NdFeB innovation is vital for a climate-safe future.
- Continued REE exploration and production are necessary despite innovation efforts.
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