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Measuring the worldwide spread of COVID-19 using a comprehensive modeling method
Xiang Zhou1, Xudong Ma2, Sifa Gao2
1Department of Critical Care Medicine, State Key Laboratory for Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100730, China.
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
|September 15, 2023
Summary
This study developed mathematical models to track COVID-19 spread globally. High-risk countries require timely public health interventions to manage predicted epidemic peaks affecting 10-20% of populations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- The global spread of COVID-19 necessitates dynamic detection of high-risk regions.
- Automatic, quantitative, and scalable analysis methods are crucial for monitoring disease progression.
- Comprehensive modeling is needed for timely public health decision-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply quantitative methods for observing and estimating COVID-19 spread worldwide.
- To generate reliable decision-making support for public health management.
- To identify high-risk countries and inform timely interventions.
Main Methods:
- Collected global COVID-19 data from January 23 to September 30, 2020.
- Categorized countries into high, middle, and low outbreak levels based on growth rates.
- Employed group-based trajectory modeling and predicted spread using logistic growth and SEIR models.
Main Results:
- Identified trajectory subgroups for 187 countries using two grouping strategies.
- The SEIR model generally predicted a larger epidemic size than the logistic growth model.
- Outbreak peaks are estimated to occur in 9-12 months, potentially affecting 10-20% of the population.
Conclusions:
- Comprehensive observations and predictions of COVID-19 outbreaks were demonstrated across 187 countries.
- The proposed methods offer multi-perspective analysis of disease development and are generalizable.
- The study provides reliable and timely decision-making support for public health management during epidemics.
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