An online-predictive model of acute kidney injury after pancreatic surgery

Acute kidney injury(AKI) after pancreatic surgery is associated with increased mortality, longer hospital stays and poor prognosis. This study aims to identify the risk factors and establish an easy-to-use prediction calculator by the nomogram to predict the risk of AKI after pancreatic surgery.

From January 2016 to June 2018, 1504 patients who underwent pancreatic surgery in our center were included in this retrospective analysis and randomly assigned to primary (1054 patients) and validation (450 patients) cohorts. The independent risk factors of AKI were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. A risk-predicted nomogram for AKI was developed through multivariate logistic regression analysis in the primary cohort while the nomogram was evaluated in the validation cohort. Nomogram discrimination and calibration were assessed using C-index and calibration curves in the primary and validation cohorts. The clinical utility of the final nomogram was evaluated using decision curve analysis.

The overall incidence of AKI after pancreatic surgery was 5.3% (79/1504). Independent risk factors including smoking history, cardiovascular disease, ASA score, baseline eGFR, bilirubin＞2 ​mg/dL, undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy, and intraoperative blood loss＞400 ​mL were identified by multivariate analysis. Nomogram revealed moderate discrimination and calibration in estimating the risk of AKI, with an unadjusted C-index of 0.79 (95 %CI, 0.73-0.85). Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort provided moderate discrimination (C-index,0.80 [95% CI, 0.72-0.88]) and good calibration. Besides, the decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

An easy-to-use online prediction calculator comprised of preoperative and intraoperative factors was able to individually predict the occurrence risk of AKI among patients with pancreatic surgery, which may help identify reasonable risk judgments and develop proper treatment strategies to a certain extent.