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The role of alternative hypotheses in reducing bias in forensic medical experts' decision making
Moa Lidén1, Ingemar Thiblin2, Itiel E Dror3
1Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UK; Centre for the Forensic Sciences, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UK; Law Faculty, Uppsala University, Sweden, Munken 1, Trädgårdsgatan 20, 753 09 Uppsala, Sweden.
Abstract:
Medical opinions are often essential evidence in criminal cases but relatively little is known about the factors that impact forensic doctors' decision making. This research examines the role and impact of having an alternative hypothesis while forming a medical opinion. A scenario-based experiment with forensic doctors (n = 20) was conducted. In two out of three scenarios, the existence of alternative hypotheses impacted the actual opinions reached, the confidence in the judgments and the perceived consistency with the plaintiff hypothesis. Investigative and legal actors should be aware of the possibility of biases and importance of having alternative hypotheses when requesting and evaluating medical opinions.
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