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Population-weighted degree-days: The global shift between heating and cooling.
H Kennard1, T Oreszczyn1, M Mistry2,3
1Energy Institute, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, UCL, London, UK.
Energy and Buildings
|September 18, 2023
Summary
Global population growth in warmer regions is the primary driver of increased cooling demand, not just rising temperatures. This study analyzes degree-days to show how population shifts significantly impact energy needs for heating and cooling.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Energy Demand Analysis
- Geographic Demographics
Background:
- Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures.
- Rising temperatures are projected to increase demand for cooling.
- Population distribution and growth significantly influence regional climate impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare area-weighted and population-weighted heating and cooling degree-days.
- To identify the primary drivers of global cooling demand.
- To analyze the impact of population growth on energy demand for climate control.
Main Methods:
- Utilized ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature data.
- Calculated area-weighted and population-weighted heating and cooling degree-days.
- Performed sub-country level analysis to compare weighted degree-days.
Main Results:
- Global area-weighted heating degree-days decreased by 8.46 °C days/year.
- Global population-weighted heating degree-days decreased by 12.5 °C days/year.
- Global area-weighted cooling degree-days increased by 3.0 °C days/year.
- Global population-weighted cooling degree-days increased by 6.0 °C days/year.
- Population-weighted degree-days differed substantially from area-weighted degree-days.
Conclusions:
- Population growth in warmer regions is the main driver of global cooling demand.
- The choice of base temperature for degree-day calculations is critical for accurate energy demand projections.
- Further research is needed to refine degree-day calculations for future energy needs.
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