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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Climate change is a significant driver of biodiversity loss.
  • Long-term ecological surveys reveal increasing local extinction events across taxa.
  • Accelerated climate change may intensify extinction rates, leading to widespread species loss.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test the hypothesis that accelerating climate change increases the rate of local extinctions.
  • To quantify extinction rates in a montane lizard population over a short timeframe.
  • To investigate the role of genomic data in predicting population survival under climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Resurveying 18 montane lizard populations across 18 mountain ranges between 2021-2022.
  • Comparing current extinction rates with historical data spanning approximately 42 years.
  • Analyzing genomic data to identify factors influencing population persistence.

Main Results:

  • Local extinction rates in the studied lizard populations tripled over the past 7 years compared to the preceding 42 years.
  • Climate change induced local extinctions in 7 years comparable to those observed over 70 years in other species.
  • Genomic data successfully predicted which populations survived and which went extinct.
  • Populations at two of the hottest sites unexpectedly survived.

Conclusions:

  • Accelerating climate change poses an increasing risk to biodiversity.
  • Ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change can be observed over surprisingly brief timescales.
  • Genomic insights are crucial for understanding and predicting species' vulnerability to climate change.